Bloomberg Analyst Probability of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Soars from 1% to 65%
Bloomberg analyst raises probability of Bitcoin ETF approval from 1% to 65%
Translation: Blockchain Knight
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have raised the chances of a spot BTC ETF being approved to 65% based on recent industry developments, a significant increase from the 1% probability they gave a few months ago.
“Based on recent events and new information, Eric Balchunas and I officially raise the chances of a spot BTC ETF being approved to 65%,” Seyffart tweeted. “This is higher than the 50% a few weeks ago and the 1% a few months ago.”
There are multiple factors driving this revised prediction, including SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s recent remarks, the developments of leading digital asset management company Grayscale, and the committee’s tacit approval of Coinbase’s BTC trading.
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Seyffart wrote, “In our view, the chances of launching a spot BTC ETF this year have risen to 65% due to a series of events, including Gary Gensler downplaying his role at the SEC, the committee’s tacit approval of Coinbase’s BTC trading, and Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC.”
Gary Gensler recently downplayed his influence within the SEC during an interview, emphasizing that he is just one of the four commissioners and cannot single-handedly decide the approval of a spot BTC ETF.
This move by Gensler to reduce his influence within the SEC may indicate a more relaxed regulatory environment for spot BTC ETFs in the future.
In addition, Bloomberg analysts Seyffart and Balchunas believe that the SEC’s attitude towards Coinbase and Grayscale could have a significant impact on the crypto industry.
As Seyffart mentioned, the current focus is on the legal dispute between Grayscale and the SEC.
Seyffart tweeted, “The key right now is that if Grayscale wins, it could prepare for a wave of approvals from the SEC in the fourth quarter. It all depends on how long Gensler wants to fight here.”
Just a few days ago, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas highlighted a recent case where the SEC lost in the District of Columbia Circuit Court, with the court calling the SEC’s order “arbitrary and capricious.”
This could be favorable for Grayscale as they also used similar legal terms in their lawsuit against the SEC. It is worth noting that Chief Judge Sri Srinivasan is one of the three judges who ruled on the Grayscale case.
Despite the optimistic outlook created by recent developments, it should be noted that there is still a significant amount of unpredictability in the approval process.
Seyffart added, “BlackRock and Coinbase SSA have completely changed the analysis of all spot BTC ETFs, not to mention the XRP event, which is less important but still relevant. We will update our views and opinions based on new information.”