Bear market increases 200 times, where does Rollbit, the leading platform of GambleFi, get its rising flywheel from?

Rollbit, the leading platform of GambleFi, thrives amidst a 200-fold increase in the bear market.

Recently, there has been a rapid rise in the GambleFi field, with Rollbit (RLB) in particular gaining significant momentum. Today, let’s take a look at this project and why its popularity has been soaring recently.

Overview of Rollbit Platform and RLB Token

Rollbit Platform: A leading GambleFi platform with a wide range of offerings

Rollbit is a comprehensive GambleFi platform established in February 2020, offering diverse products such as casinos, sports betting, futures trading, and NFT markets. Rollbit currently has a market value of over $633 million and according to its official website, it has over 1 million registered users.

Rollbit platform upgraded to V2 in March 2021, with improvements in rule design and user experience. In terms of entry requirements, Rollbit caters to both Web 2.0 and Web 3.0 players, making it user-friendly. You can register an account using your email, log in through Steam and Twitch accounts, or directly participate in platform activities by connecting your encrypted wallet (currently only supports MetaMask).

In terms of products, Rollbit follows the “game lobby” model like most GambleFi platforms, offering different games in various sections. In addition to some common and traditional games, Rollbit also has many innovative features.

The platform has many games in the Casino section that enhance the interactive experience between users, including challenges that any user can initiate and bonus battles where users can interact and compete with the balance in the prize pool as the target. In the sports betting section, Rollbit supports betting on a wide range of sports events, including but not limited to NFL, NBA, Soccer, UFC, and esports. Furthermore, a major feature of the platform is trading over 20 leading cryptocurrencies with leverage of up to 1,000x in the futures trading section.

RLB Token: 100% airdrop

RLB is the utility token of the Rollbit platform, initially launched as part of the Rollbit Lottery product. Holders can earn rewards through staking and participate in lottery draws and other activities.

The issuance of RLB did not follow the usual ICO process. In other words, it did not conduct external fundraising or OTC transactions during its launch. 100% of the tokens entered the market through free airdrops.

This distribution model attracted the first batch of “believers” for Rollbit. Why do we say that?

Let’s review a similar case: in the DeFi space. Its token gained market attention when it was launched because the team did not conduct any fundraising or reserve any $YFI tokens, aiming to truly belong to every token holder. This is also known as a “Fair Launch” model. This not only earned YFI praise as a “true embodiment of decentralization”, but its price also once surpassed Bitcoin, breaking $60,000.

Following this logic, compared to projects in the same field that reserve a portion of tokens, RLB’s token distribution, which is similar to Fair Launch, undoubtedly aligns more with the spirit of blockchain decentralization and is more likely to gain user recognition.

Why RLB is recently so hot

Implementation of token buyback and burn plan

On August 9th, Lucky, co-founder of Rollbit (@Lucky_Rollbit), announced on his Twitter that in order to further enhance the importance of RLB tokens to the entire project ecosystem, the platform will launch a “token buyback and burn plan”.

According to the plan, the platform will set aside a portion of the daily fee income to purchase RLB tokens on the open market and send them to an address not controlled by any entity to achieve the purpose of burning. The token purchase funds include 10% of casino revenue, 20% of sports betting revenue, and 30% of leveraged futures revenue.

This plan will continuously reduce the circulation of RLB in the market, providing sustained buying pressure for the token and supporting its price increase. Moreover, since the buyback funds come from a percentage of the platform’s revenue, the more revenue the platform generates, the more funds there will be for daily token buybacks, and the larger the amount of RLB burned daily. This will provide more momentum for the rise in token price. It sounds like a good story of mutual achievement between the platform and token holders, and the market was also deeply moved by it. As a result, RLB’s price soared by nearly 70% that day.

On August 10th, another co-founder, Razer (@Razer_Rollbit), further announced that RLB’s buyback and burn plan has entered the automated execution stage and is carried out once every hour. This news slightly boosted the rise in RLB’s price, breaking $0.20.

NFT holder dividend plan

On August 12th, Rollbit seized the opportunity and released another piece of good news: pledgers of the platform’s NFT (Rollbot) can receive a 10% dividend from the hourly RLB buyback and burn.

Based on real-time data on the Rollbit Dashboard, we can roughly estimate the benefits that this plan can bring to Rollbot pledgers.

As shown in the figure below, currently, the approximate number of RLB coins distributed to users from the repurchase plan per hour is around 5,000. The price of RLB is about $0.20, so the platform will distribute about $1,000 in rebates to users every hour. The total amount of rebates in a day is about 25,000 to 30,000 dollars, which is definitely generous in the current sluggish market environment.

Migration to Ethereum Network

This happened at the end of June, although it has been a while, it obviously marked the beginning of the strong trend of RLB in the future.

RLB was initially deployed on the Solana blockchain. Last year’s FTX bankruptcy incident brought a series of negative impacts to Solana, and projects in its ecosystem have been affected one after another. On June 28th this year, considering the development bottleneck caused by the Solana blockchain, Rollbit migrated RLB to Ethereum.

What exactly happened to Solana? Please refer to the research article: Solana Rating Update – Solana Network or Solana Not-Work?

As a giant in the public chain field in the crypto market, Ethereum’s active ecosystem has brought vitality and more attention to RLB. In the 10 days after Rollbit announced the token migration, the price of RLB rose from $0.021 on June 28th to a historical high of $0.0695, an increase of more than 230%.

In the announcement, the Rollbit team also stated that users will be given sufficient time to migrate their RLB to Ethereum, and their holdings will not be affected.

GambleFi Narrative in the Bear Market

In the current market with insufficient liquidity, many users will choose to turn to meme coins or gambling projects to seek entertainment or profit. This may not only be because these fields have lower participation thresholds but also because they usually have higher user activity and liquidity – which is very attractive to users who want to enter and exit quickly.

In addition, compared to traditional platforms, GambleFi platforms that integrate blockchain technology have more attractive features for attracting players, such as fairness, transparency, and decentralization. These features may attract users who value game rules or anonymity.

Questioning Rollbit’s Popularity

Although many users in the market have been shouting for RLB, and the price trend of RLB has indeed not disappointed (so far), with this wave of popularity, many people have raised doubts about Rollbit and even dug up some “dark history” of the project.

Concerns about Transparency Raised by Suspected “Invisible Market Making”

Currently, Rollbit is not operating entirely on-chain. If we speculate with the “worst intentions,” the betting, income, and turnover data that users see on the front end of the platform may all be fabricated from a black box.

On August 20th, Twitter user thiccy (@thiccythot_) tweeted that there seemed to be invisible market makers among Rollbit’s major holders.

According to thiccy’s observations, several large holders’ addresses have been consistently selling RLB, often in amounts of hundreds of thousands of coins. Although some of these sales occurred before the token buyback and burn plan was implemented (i.e., when RLB skyrocketed), this periodic reduction in holdings could be seen as normal arbitrage behavior. However, it also raises our concerns: in terms of transparency, the Rollbit team could indeed do better – if it loses decentralization and transparency, what advantages does it have compared to GambleFi and traditional gaming platforms? The anonymity enjoyed by market makers themselves?

The Dark History of Influential KOLs Manipulating Retail Investors

This “surprise” comes from the discovery made by Reddit user Alisko2000 in the largest cryptocurrency community on Reddit, r/CryptoCurrency.

The user claims to have stumbled upon some suspicious past activity related to “RLB Shiller.” For example, KOL@gainzy, who was once targeted by the “blockchain detective” ZachXBT, is suspected of accepting Rollbit sponsorship while selling RLB tokens. The amount of sales even exceeded three million US dollars at the ATH (All-Time High).

Of course, inviting influential individuals to promote a project is not a sin, as sometimes the aroma of wine needs to be spread through the streets to attract more audience to discover hidden value. However, in the crypto market, it is not uncommon for KOLs to collude with project teams to manipulate retail investors, and Rollbit, with such a history, has seen various KOLs enthusiastically promoting it during this surge. This inevitably raises a question in people’s minds: are they here to harvest gains again?

Can the Rising Wheel Keep Turning?

In the story of Rollbit, the platform now has an attractive “rising wheel”: the platform makes money, shares a portion with users, boosts user confidence, increases market buying pressure, the platform continues to make money, and continues to share with users.

Let’s recap the token buyback and burn plan as well as the staker rewards plan mentioned earlier. In general, this win-win situation between the platform and users is formed as follows: the platform makes money and then shares some with users. And they are all based on the same foundation: the profitability of the Rollbit platform – to put it more directly, the money the platform earns from participating players. It must be said that this model is somewhat “pyramid-like.” Generally speaking, “pyramid” type stories are particularly attractive for a period of time, but they are difficult to sustain in the long run.

Speaking of Rollbit, both the platform and the token holders make money from players. Participating in the game involves both winning and losing, but holding tokens means “steady happiness”. So, as a platform that does not have more advantages in terms of business than traditional online casinos, how long can Rollbit attract players to “give money” to their own game field? If it fails to maintain the stickiness of platform players and improve its ability to attract and retain customers, this “flywheel” may inevitably slow down or even stagnate at some point in the future.