Unique Opportunity How to Participate in the Hype of Room-Temperature Superconductivity in the Cryptocurrency Market?
Unique Opportunity Participate in the Hype of Room-Temperature Superconductivity in Crypto Market
Author: 0x26
Is room-temperature superconductivity real? If you have unique insights on this matter, you can try predicting the market on Polymarket. In this market, your perspective will be greatly magnified. You can learn the latest knowledge and understand the hottest events every day. And who knows, you might even make some money based on your understanding.
Polymarket covers not only topics like whether Curve’s founder will get liquidated, but also whether extraterrestrial life exists, whether room-temperature superconductors are real, who will be the next US president among candidates like Trump and Biden, Bitcoin price predictions, first-week sales of Travis Scott’s new album “Utopia,” Kylian Mbappe’s transfer destination, and even whether Twitter (X) will go bankrupt in 2023.
Product Overview
It is not difficult for users to participate in specific events and make predictions. If you are familiar with the Trump futures previously launched by FTX, you will easily understand how Polymarket works.
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In simple terms, the total value of tokens for both positive and negative outcomes in each prediction market on Polymarket is 1. Taking the previous US presidential election as an example, if the token price for believing Trump would win is 0.3, then the token value for believing Biden would win is 0.7. On Polymarket, the value of both tokens is higher than 1 because each transaction incurs a certain fee.
Finally, if Biden wins, the token value for Biden is 1, and for Trump, it is 0.
Actual Use
Creating an Account
Users can choose to register with their email or directly connect with their Web3 wallets. By transferring USDC to their proxy wallet on Polymarket, which is held by the user and completely owned by them, users can recharge their account on Polymarket. The private key for the proxy wallet can be obtained by the user. Using the proxy wallet allows Polymarket to provide an improved user experience, including the automation of multi-step transactions.
Through the Polygon network, my USDC was transferred to my Polymarket account almost instantly.
Backing Your Beliefs
In the early days, Polymarket used Automated Market Maker (AMM) to provide liquidity, but this method caused some impermanent loss for liquidity providers. Now, Polymarket adopts the Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) model, which is a centralized order book. Currently, Polymarket holds incentive activities similar to Blur, and it strengthens the liquidity in the order book by encouraging users to place limit orders close to the midpoint through Liquidity Mining.
Take the topic of room temperature superconductivity as an example. Users who believe in room temperature superconductivity can choose to buy on the Trade Yes page (blue in the picture); while users who do not believe can enter the Trade No page and choose to buy (red in the picture).
Combining the price trend, let’s briefly review the event.
On July 26th, a research team from South Korea published a paper claiming to have successfully discovered the world’s first room temperature superconductor “LK-99”, which can reach the superconducting critical point at 127 degrees Celsius under normal pressure.
On July 27th, the Polymarket market opened the “prediction market on whether room temperature superconductivity is true” with a 50:50 ratio, and then the number of dissenting parties quickly increased. At its peak, the market believed that there was an 85% probability that room temperature superconductivity was false.
With the release of a tweet by Twitter user Andrew Cote, news that the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in the United States submitted a paper on arXiv supporting LK-99 as a high-temperature superconductor in an ambient pressure environment triggered a strong optimistic sentiment in the market for room temperature superconductivity, causing a big reversal. At one point, the market believed with a 60% probability that room temperature superconductivity was true. In other words, in Polymarket, which allows real-time trading, users who believed in room temperature superconductivity could have earned more than double their profits.
With more research and discussion, the probability of success in room temperature superconductivity has once again decreased.
Dust Settles
Before opening the prediction market, Polymarket sets specific judgment criteria for each prediction. Each user needs to carefully read the judgment criteria before participating to avoid disputes.
Take the “Will Curve Founder be Liquidated” market, which has recently become popular, as an example. The standard set by Polymarket is, “If Curve founder Michael Egorov’s position in Aave or Fraxlend, worth millions of dollars, is forcibly liquidated before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on August 15th, the market will decide YES. Otherwise, the market will decide NO.”
During the process of determining the result, users can also learn about the positions of both parties through the data provided by the official.
Participation of users who believe in room temperature superconductivity
Leaderboard of Polymarket market, the top-ranked user earned over 900,000 USD in profits
Verbal Battle
To some extent, Polymarket can be considered an extraordinary product. Because here, you can have serious “discussions” about specific events with users from all over the world, rather than just speculating on cryptocurrencies.
Some popular market segments have also integrated Disqus functionality, like adding a Baidu Tieba to these prediction markets. Users can freely express their opinions here, not only sharing relevant information on related topics but also directly expressing their thoughts.
Note: Currently, due to the presence of a large number of bots, Polymarket has shut down the discussion sections of some markets.
Not only on the website but also in the official Polymarket community, members are knowledgeable and well-informed, and cryptocurrency is just one of the six discussion groups.
A certain Polymarket user stated that their laboratory has completed experiments on room-temperature superconductivity.
However, Polymarket currently does not support the creation of self-built markets. If users want to create a market for a certain event, they still need to submit a series of materials for the Polymarket team to review.
Even so, the team has been fined $1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) due to non-compliant market themes.
Regarding the appeal of this fair and transparent prediction market, Mike from 1confirmation summed it up appropriately,
“Polymarket can quickly create markets for hot topics such as culture, technology, and politics, attracting a diverse community. These community members not only have vitality but can also use Polymarket as a true barometer of emotions.
Cryptocurrency-based prediction markets are a way to combat the dissemination of incorrect or biased information in the media and provide economic incentives for people seeking the truth.
The era of mass adoption of prediction markets is approaching. As the world becomes more interconnected and information spreads faster, there is a growing demand for reliable, community-driven platforms.”
