What is the current outlook for the development of the NFT ecosystem?
What is the current state of NFT development?
During the AMA event on Sunday night, we discussed various topics related to user research. Due to time constraints, there were some topics where I felt like my opinions weren’t fully expressed, so in this article today, I would like to elaborate on a few topics and also emphasize some key points.
1. What is the current state of NFT development?
Regarding the current and future development of the NFT ecosystem, I believe that all ecosystem projects (led by Bored Ape Yacht Club) are facing great trial-and-error risks.
Because they have to take a path from virtual to real, there is no second choice. On this path, there is no doubt that Bored Ape Yacht Club is pushing the industry forward almost single-handedly. Although they are working very hard, I still have some concerns about this.
I have already expressed my reasons in previous articles and in Sunday’s AMA.
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Therefore, in the short term, it can be said that all such projects have the possibility of continuing to decline in valuation (floor price). These projects not only include NFTs in the Ethereum ecosystem, but also a recent batch of Ordinal NFTs that have emerged in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Ethereum’s NFTs have been discussed quite thoroughly, but there still seems to be a lack of risk awareness regarding Bitcoin’s Ordinal NFTs – because they have only recently appeared.
But in my opinion, a large number of Ordinal NFTs in Bitcoin will not be able to break out of the circle in the future purely by artistic design, and they must also take a path from virtual to real. And as long as they take this path, they will inevitably face the same problems as the Ethereum NFT ecosystem.
Unless some project can make a qualitative breakthrough on this path in the future, the future of these types of NFTs is bleak.
In this situation, I think there are only two types of NFTs that can withstand risks and still have room for continuous growth in the future:
The first type is NFTs with historical value and significance. Typical examples of such NFTs in Ethereum are CryptoPunks and prehistoric (pre-2017) NFTs; typical examples in Bitcoin are the top 10K Ordinal NFTs.
The second type is NFTs with pure artistic value. Typical examples of such NFTs in Ethereum are Art Blocks’ classic generative art; there are currently no particularly well-known works in Bitcoin.
These two types of NFTs can resist risks because they have inherent value and do not need to rely on external development and ecological expansion to enhance and maintain their value.
2. Regarding ENS
Overall, I think there is a considerable gap between the current development of ENS and the expectations of the entire community. It should be able to tap and exert greater potential, rather than “resting on its laurels” like it is now.
I still hold some of the ENS I bought, especially some valuable ones.
As for whether it is appropriate for some investors to buy some high-priced ENS now, I think it depends on their own situation. If the price is still a bit difficult to afford, I suggest being cautious; if the price can be tolerated, you can buy it appropriately, but the position needs to be controlled.
3. We need to deeply reflect on FOMO sentiment.
In Sunday night’s AMA, I expressed my views on FOMO sentiment.
Simply put, we can review together, taking the just-passed bull market as an example, we will see that almost all “arrogant” projects in the bull market (except Bitcoin and Ethereum) have fallen by almost 80%. The price drop may be as high as 90% when priced in US dollars.
So now looking back and reflecting on our FOMO sentiment at that time, is it worth our deep reflection? Therefore, even for good projects, we must strictly pay attention to the price. When the price is high, FOMO sentiment comes, and good things will always contain extremely high risks.
When the bear market comes and the bubble is squeezed, those who are naked will be exposed.
However, “the worse the better”, after all things develop to the extreme pessimism, they may usher in a bright future, a new world.
Now, the last virgin land “NFT” in the entire crypto ecosystem has also been tortured. At this point, every subdivision in the crypto ecosystem has been completely tortured in a bear market.
Does this also indicate that the entire crypto ecosystem will be able to go into battle lightly and create brilliance in the bull market in the future?